{
  "created_at": "2026-11-07T19:37:50.121739+08:00",
  "local": [
    {
      "id": "C6_registry",
      "path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\ChatGPT\\长期投资系统\\docs\\research\\2026-11-07-three-track-selection-v2.json",
      "sha256": "54862eb2f32bbe265559721d289605e09ba793e5081780ac2ab55f29594ec523",
      "scope": "existing evidence, read-only, not revalidated as live data"
    },
    {
      "id": "C6_RC01_result",
      "path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\RC-01商品与现金-2026-11-07\\结果.json",
      "sha256": "c657ab0b6b3401787570a64ac41e6fba7ba93db963815d5fea8405c1b33c34f1",
      "scope": "existing evidence, read-only, not revalidated as live data"
    },
    {
      "id": "C6_RC01_quality",
      "path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\RC-01商品与现金-2026-11-07\\冻结与质量.json",
      "sha256": "2db2d86d77a63b0cfd4a44fe7da261f19ed467a012661cfc42a1bfab4892e7b7",
      "scope": "existing evidence, read-only, not revalidated as live data"
    },
    {
      "id": "AI8_initial_observation",
      "path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\AI8决策样本-2026-11-07\\判断样本.json",
      "sha256": "4816ba3c1bdcd6aa349e4538a3ca7dca7132b8944a8882100d7a00117fc048b8",
      "scope": "existing evidence, read-only, not revalidated as live data"
    },
    {
      "id": "AI8_long_horizon",
      "path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\AI8决策样本-2026-11-07\\年度方向选择与多年持有-v0.3.txt",
      "sha256": "5d77b644d34f9648b8fd4075c50b0dd1ff18a5144d4bbc0ed84d7126f0a5f8c4",
      "scope": "existing evidence, read-only, not revalidated as live data"
    },
    {
      "id": "data_evidence_audit",
      "path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\年度判断证据清单-2026-11-07\\现有资料核查.json",
      "sha256": "5009feb3d1ed9202eac2238ffbfa2e7e64a9320e7194776365f6f344b0f2cd8f",
      "scope": "existing evidence, read-only, not revalidated as live data"
    },
    {
      "id": "policy_price_audit",
      "path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\政策年度基调与资产回测\\data-audit.json",
      "sha256": "170214694b882c340c7765254d8c1aa826f634f526a78cd6c28564b5f1d9a905",
      "scope": "existing evidence, read-only, not revalidated as live data"
    }
  ],
  "web_method_sources": [
    {
      "id": "M1",
      "title": "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve / Reifschneider and Tulip",
      "published": "2017-02",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/gauging-the-uncertainty-of-the-economic-outlook-using-historical-forecasting-errors-the-federal-reserves-approach.htm",
      "locator": "Abstract, conclusions First through Finally",
      "read_scope": "官方摘要；未宣称核读完整论文",
      "fact": "历史预测误差表明宏观预测不确定性很大，不同预测者准确度相近；误差区间依赖过去能否代表未来等假设。",
      "inference": "以公开预测和历史误差作基线，AI不得凭自信输出精确成功概率。",
      "archive_id": "fed_uncertainty_2017"
    },
    {
      "id": "M2",
      "title": "How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?",
      "institution": "IMF Working Paper authors An/Jalles/Loungani",
      "published": "2018-03-05",
      "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/03/05/how-well-do-economists-forecast-recessions-45672",
      "locator": "官方网页 Overview / Summary statement",
      "read_scope": "网页摘要；工作论文作者观点，不等于IMF正式配置建议",
      "fact": "研究63国1992—2014年的预测，发现衰退与繁荣的时点及幅度存在系统性预测失误。",
      "inference": "不能把年度机构展望当作可靠的危机提前通知；保留不依赖预测命中的核心。",
      "archive_id": "imf_forecasts_2018",
      "archive_limitation": "web工具可读摘要，主机直接下载403，无本地成功原件"
    },
    {
      "id": "M3",
      "title": "GDPNow",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta",
      "published": null,
      "url": "https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow",
      "locator": "网页开头GDPNow定义、Frequently Asked Questions",
      "read_scope": "网页定义与FAQ",
      "fact": "GDPNow是对当前被测季度实际GDP的滚动模型估计，不是亚特兰大联储正式预测，也不是主观判断调整。",
      "inference": "用作当前景气交叉检查，不将它外推为未来一年或三年的增长率。",
      "archive_id": null
    },
    {
      "id": "M4",
      "title": "Survey of Professional Forecasters",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia",
      "published": null,
      "url": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters",
      "locator": "Historical SPF Forecast Data / Probability Variables / Forecast Evaluation Tools；顶部修订说明",
      "read_scope": "官方数据目录及说明；未下载全部历史预测",
      "fact": "提供季度历史调查、均值/中位数、分歧、概率变量及预测误差材料；网页还提示2026Q3报告部分历史Actual表格更正，预测与底层Excel不受该展示错误影响。",
      "inference": "共识是可比较基线，需保留预测期与修订；分歧不是未来结果的完整概率分布。",
      "archive_id": "philadelphia_spf"
    },
    {
      "id": "M5",
      "title": "Composite Leading Indicators FAQs",
      "institution": "OECD",
      "published": null,
      "url": "https://www.oecd.org/en/data/insights/data-explainers/2024/04/composite-leading-indicators-frequently-asked-questions.html",
      "locator": "FAQ 1 What is a CLI? / Why are CLIs revised?",
      "read_scope": "定义与修订段落",
      "fact": "CLI目标是提前提示趋势附近的周期转折，给定性而非具体增长幅度信息；会修订，官方说明有自1999年2月起的历次版本库。",
      "inference": "可作不同地区的方向交叉检查，但历史回测必须另取当时版本；今日修订序列不能回填。",
      "archive_id": "oecd_cli_faq",
      "archive_limitation": "web工具可读相关段落，主机直接下载403；历次版本接口本轮未验收"
    },
    {
      "id": "M6",
      "title": "Introducing the Chicago Fed’s New Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago",
      "published": "2017",
      "url": "https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2017/386",
      "locator": "The NFCI and ANFCI；figure1注释；105 indicators段落",
      "read_scope": "正文定义、调整及组成段落",
      "fact": "NFCI综合风险、信用、杠杆等金融条件；ANFCI进一步控制经济活动及通胀的通常影响。",
      "inference": "利率下降不一定等于融资宽松；信用条件与增长/通胀分开核查，且复合指标成分不可重复计票。",
      "archive_id": "chicago_anfci_2017"
    },
    {
      "id": "M7",
      "title": "Assessing Recession Risks with State-Level Data",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve staff research note",
      "published": "2026-01-07",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/assessing-recession-risks-with-state-level-data-20260107.html",
      "locator": "footnote8；footnote16；开头模型用途说明",
      "read_scope": "相关正文与脚注；不将1月判断当作11月现状",
      "fact": "脚注8明确图2平滑概率用全样本信息，目的是历史分类而非实时表现；脚注16指出2023—24年倒挂期间未出现衰退。",
      "inference": "看起来准确的历史图可能带后见信息；收益率曲线是风险证据，不是确定买卖开关。",
      "archive_id": "fed_recession_2026"
    },
    {
      "id": "M8",
      "title": "Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts",
      "institution": "Vanguard",
      "published": null,
      "url": "https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html",
      "locator": "forecast horizon and valuation caveats",
      "read_scope": "沿用本聊天已核读官方说明，不取其当前配置比例",
      "fact": "长期收益假设不应外推短期表现；估值对短期甚至中期表现预测较弱。",
      "inference": "经济预测正确还需估值及股东收益传导证据，才能形成ETF倾斜。",
      "archive_id": null
    }
  ],
  "direct_fetch_log": "方法来源获取记录.json"
}