{
  "policy": {
    "version": "composition-controls-v1",
    "stage": "Second exploratory block declared after observing defensive overlay results. Not a pre-registered holdout. No trend parameter changes.",
    "purpose": "Separate asset composition effects from trend timing. Keep equities, long Treasuries, gold and T-bills at 25% each; no extra leverage.",
    "variants": {
      "US25": {
        "SPY": 0.25,
        "TLT": 0.25,
        "GLD": 0.25,
        "BIL": 0.25
      },
      "US-Nasdaq-mix25": {
        "SPY": 0.125,
        "QQQ": 0.125,
        "TLT": 0.25,
        "GLD": 0.25,
        "BIL": 0.25
      },
      "Global25": {
        "VT": 0.25,
        "TLT": 0.25,
        "GLD": 0.25,
        "BIL": 0.25
      }
    },
    "rebalance": "Monthly first equity trading close",
    "mixed_trend": "Apply the SAME 10 completed month moving average separately to SPY/QQQ/TLT/GLD; off sleeve goes to BIL without increasing others. Same lag and execution assumptions.",
    "comparison": "US versus mixed equities on original 2007-05-30 cutoff window; all three compositions on identical VT inception window. Do not directly rank mismatched periods.",
    "cost_bps": 5,
    "limitations": [
      "Nasdaq overlaps US market and concentrates growth/technology within the equity sleeve; not independent asset-class diversification",
      "No 2000-2002 common four-asset ETF history, retrospective winner selection possible",
      "All variants exploratory and require separate robustness/forward evaluation before promotion"
    ]
  },
  "policy_sha256": "34a1e346c34e79eeac47ba92ba46e6df5921a326207ef66e14c7f02d27d924c2",
  "long": {
    "US25": {
      "start": "2007-05-30",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "years": 19.430926028597437,
      "final_value": 351652.7800410638,
      "total_return": 2.5165278004106377,
      "cagr": 0.0668550209836225,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.07438954875733088,
      "max_drawdown": -0.17507808970553818,
      "max_dd_peak": "2021-12-27",
      "max_dd_trough": "2022-10-20",
      "max_dd_recovery": "2024-03-06",
      "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 800,
      "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 799,
      "longest_underwater_start": "2021-12-27",
      "longest_underwater_last_below": "2024-03-05",
      "rebalances": 234,
      "cost_usd": 632.3288774129428
    },
    "US-Nasdaq-mix25": {
      "start": "2007-05-30",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "years": 19.430926028597437,
      "final_value": 396983.6085647085,
      "total_return": 2.969836085647085,
      "cagr": 0.0735331063659952,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.07630338449484662,
      "max_drawdown": -0.18908686169580757,
      "max_dd_peak": "2021-11-19",
      "max_dd_trough": "2022-10-20",
      "max_dd_recovery": "2024-03-06",
      "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 838,
      "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 837,
      "longest_underwater_start": "2021-11-19",
      "longest_underwater_last_below": "2024-03-05",
      "rebalances": 234,
      "cost_usd": 712.9715325884542
    }
  },
  "global_common": {
    "US25": {
      "start": "2008-06-26",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "years": 18.354928574850955,
      "final_value": 322317.7171113758,
      "total_return": 2.223177171113758,
      "cagr": 0.06583989612130625,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.07465772481803475,
      "max_drawdown": -0.17507808970553862,
      "max_dd_peak": "2021-12-27",
      "max_dd_trough": "2022-10-20",
      "max_dd_recovery": "2024-03-06",
      "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 800,
      "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 799,
      "longest_underwater_start": "2021-12-27",
      "longest_underwater_last_below": "2024-03-05",
      "rebalances": 221,
      "cost_usd": 567.4137917445228
    },
    "US-Nasdaq-mix25": {
      "start": "2008-06-26",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "years": 18.354928574850955,
      "final_value": 357711.9097099525,
      "total_return": 2.577119097099525,
      "cagr": 0.0719072492803714,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.07662213098533542,
      "max_drawdown": -0.18908686169580913,
      "max_dd_peak": "2021-11-19",
      "max_dd_trough": "2022-10-20",
      "max_dd_recovery": "2024-03-06",
      "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 838,
      "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 837,
      "longest_underwater_start": "2021-11-19",
      "longest_underwater_last_below": "2024-03-05",
      "rebalances": 221,
      "cost_usd": 630.3735453949341
    },
    "Global25": {
      "start": "2008-06-26",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "years": 18.354928574850955,
      "final_value": 279635.84060267254,
      "total_return": 1.7963584060267253,
      "cagr": 0.05762315183436062,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.07782918628110369,
      "max_drawdown": -0.18518024964641244,
      "max_dd_peak": "2021-11-09",
      "max_dd_trough": "2022-10-20",
      "max_dd_recovery": "2024-04-09",
      "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 882,
      "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 881,
      "longest_underwater_start": "2021-11-09",
      "longest_underwater_last_below": "2024-04-08",
      "rebalances": 221,
      "cost_usd": 519.2946849186519
    }
  },
  "mixed_trend": {
    "start": "2007-05-30",
    "end": "2026-11-03",
    "years": 19.430926028597437,
    "final_value": 285652.45002234087,
    "total_return": 1.8565245002234088,
    "cagr": 0.055502835883071366,
    "annualized_volatility": 0.05891519671090249,
    "max_drawdown": -0.07995875616695514,
    "max_dd_peak": "2020-03-06",
    "max_dd_trough": "2020-03-18",
    "max_dd_recovery": "2020-04-23",
    "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 48,
    "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 940,
    "longest_underwater_start": "2015-02-02",
    "longest_underwater_last_below": "2017-08-30",
    "rebalances": 234,
    "cost_usd": 4889.117101761165
  },
  "robustness": {
    "US25": [
      {
        "start": "2007-05-30",
        "end": "2016-12-30",
        "years": 9.588150338473753,
        "final_value": 170610.5403211732,
        "total_return": 0.706105403211732,
        "cagr": 0.057297351740051905,
        "annualized_volatility": 0.07283650873658097,
        "max_drawdown": -0.15164055935115495,
        "max_dd_peak": "2008-03-18",
        "max_dd_trough": "2008-11-12",
        "max_dd_recovery": "2009-09-10",
        "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 541,
        "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 622,
        "longest_underwater_start": "2012-10-04",
        "longest_underwater_last_below": "2014-06-18"
      },
      {
        "start": "2017-01-03",
        "end": "2026-11-03",
        "years": 9.83182406209573,
        "final_value": 204976.2149598404,
        "total_return": 1.0497621495984042,
        "cagr": 0.07573060314244584,
        "annualized_volatility": 0.07588678936055936,
        "max_drawdown": -0.17507808970553895,
        "max_dd_peak": "2021-12-27",
        "max_dd_trough": "2022-10-20",
        "max_dd_recovery": "2024-03-06",
        "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 800,
        "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 799,
        "longest_underwater_start": "2021-12-27",
        "longest_underwater_last_below": "2024-03-05"
      },
      {
        "start": "2010-01-04",
        "end": "2026-11-03",
        "years": 16.829914371958356,
        "final_value": 300622.41011159355,
        "total_return": 2.0062241011159356,
        "cagr": 0.06758650875309602,
        "annualized_volatility": 0.07024129021155004,
        "max_drawdown": -0.17507808970553795,
        "max_dd_peak": "2021-12-27",
        "max_dd_trough": "2022-10-20",
        "max_dd_recovery": "2024-03-06",
        "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 800,
        "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 799,
        "longest_underwater_start": "2021-12-27",
        "longest_underwater_last_below": "2024-03-05"
      },
      {
        "start": "2020-01-02",
        "end": "2026-11-03",
        "years": 6.836553796450303,
        "final_value": 160238.69555680305,
        "total_return": 0.6023869555680306,
        "cagr": 0.07140050115045837,
        "annualized_volatility": 0.08558225939431403,
        "max_drawdown": -0.17507808970553929,
        "max_dd_peak": "2021-12-27",
        "max_dd_trough": "2022-10-20",
        "max_dd_recovery": "2024-03-06",
        "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 800,
        "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 799,
        "longest_underwater_start": "2021-12-27",
        "longest_underwater_last_below": "2024-03-05"
      }
    ],
    "US-Nasdaq-mix25": [
      {
        "start": "2007-05-30",
        "end": "2016-12-30",
        "years": 9.588150338473753,
        "final_value": 180803.35760759367,
        "total_return": 0.8080335760759367,
        "cagr": 0.06371541899752486,
        "annualized_volatility": 0.0725523225282814,
        "max_drawdown": -0.1534847543456319,
        "max_dd_peak": "2008-05-20",
        "max_dd_trough": "2008-11-12",
        "max_dd_recovery": "2009-08-27",
        "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 464,
        "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 624,
        "longest_underwater_start": "2012-10-03",
        "longest_underwater_last_below": "2014-06-19"
      },
      {
        "start": "2017-01-03",
        "end": "2026-11-03",
        "years": 9.83182406209573,
        "final_value": 218317.72655127067,
        "total_return": 1.1831772655127066,
        "cagr": 0.08265209514083383,
        "annualized_volatility": 0.07980912271681594,
        "max_drawdown": -0.1890868616958088,
        "max_dd_peak": "2021-11-19",
        "max_dd_trough": "2022-10-20",
        "max_dd_recovery": "2024-03-06",
        "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 838,
        "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 837,
        "longest_underwater_start": "2021-11-19",
        "longest_underwater_last_below": "2024-03-05"
      },
      {
        "start": "2010-01-04",
        "end": "2026-11-03",
        "years": 16.829914371958356,
        "final_value": 328556.5089602008,
        "total_return": 2.285565089602008,
        "cagr": 0.073237754639355,
        "annualized_volatility": 0.07303402477611154,
        "max_drawdown": -0.18908686169580846,
        "max_dd_peak": "2021-11-19",
        "max_dd_trough": "2022-10-20",
        "max_dd_recovery": "2024-03-06",
        "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 838,
        "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 837,
        "longest_underwater_start": "2021-11-19",
        "longest_underwater_last_below": "2024-03-05"
      },
      {
        "start": "2020-01-02",
        "end": "2026-11-03",
        "years": 6.836553796450303,
        "final_value": 166279.3762346743,
        "total_return": 0.662793762346743,
        "cagr": 0.07721548773983189,
        "annualized_volatility": 0.0898213072036098,
        "max_drawdown": -0.18908686169580857,
        "max_dd_peak": "2021-11-19",
        "max_dd_trough": "2022-10-20",
        "max_dd_recovery": "2024-03-06",
        "max_dd_peak_to_recovery_days": 838,
        "longest_underwater_calendar_days": 837,
        "longest_underwater_start": "2021-11-19",
        "longest_underwater_last_below": "2024-03-05"
      }
    ]
  },
  "data_checks": [
    {
      "symbols": [
        "SPY",
        "TLT",
        "GLD",
        "BIL"
      ],
      "start": "2007-05-30",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "sessions": 4890,
      "missing_or_unusable": {},
      "adjustment_residual_max_bps": {
        "SPY": 0.010296872743342789,
        "TLT": 0.02217506456680951,
        "GLD": 0.0,
        "BIL": 0.015906232371243334
      }
    },
    {
      "symbols": [
        "SPY",
        "QQQ",
        "TLT",
        "GLD",
        "BIL"
      ],
      "start": "2007-05-30",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "sessions": 4890,
      "missing_or_unusable": {},
      "adjustment_residual_max_bps": {
        "SPY": 0.010296872743342789,
        "QQQ": 0.010512153063579888,
        "TLT": 0.02217506456680951,
        "GLD": 0.0,
        "BIL": 0.015906232371243334
      }
    },
    {
      "symbols": [
        "SPY",
        "TLT",
        "GLD",
        "BIL"
      ],
      "start": "2008-06-26",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "sessions": 4618,
      "missing_or_unusable": {},
      "adjustment_residual_max_bps": {
        "SPY": 0.010166336462669179,
        "TLT": 0.02217506456680951,
        "GLD": 0.0,
        "BIL": 0.015906232371243334
      }
    },
    {
      "symbols": [
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        "QQQ",
        "TLT",
        "GLD",
        "BIL"
      ],
      "start": "2008-06-26",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "sessions": 4618,
      "missing_or_unusable": {},
      "adjustment_residual_max_bps": {
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    },
    {
      "symbols": [
        "VT",
        "TLT",
        "GLD",
        "BIL"
      ],
      "start": "2008-06-26",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "sessions": 4618,
      "missing_or_unusable": {},
      "adjustment_residual_max_bps": {
        "VT": 0.011371089579936822,
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        "GLD": 0.0,
        "BIL": 0.015906232371243334
      }
    },
    {
      "symbols": [
        "SPY",
        "QQQ",
        "TLT",
        "GLD",
        "BIL"
      ],
      "start": "2007-05-30",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "sessions": 4890,
      "missing_or_unusable": {},
      "adjustment_residual_max_bps": {
        "SPY": 0.010296872743342789,
        "QQQ": 0.010512153063579888,
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      }
    },
    {
      "symbols": [
        "SPY",
        "QQQ",
        "TLT",
        "GLD"
      ],
      "start": "2004-11-18",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "sessions": 5524,
      "missing_or_unusable": {},
      "adjustment_residual_max_bps": {
        "SPY": 0.01035420112094343,
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        "GLD": 0.0
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    },
    {
      "symbols": [
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        "GLD",
        "BIL"
      ],
      "start": "2007-05-30",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "sessions": 4890,
      "missing_or_unusable": {},
      "adjustment_residual_max_bps": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "symbols": [
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        "QQQ",
        "TLT",
        "GLD",
        "BIL"
      ],
      "start": "2007-05-30",
      "end": "2026-11-03",
      "sessions": 4890,
      "missing_or_unusable": {},
      "adjustment_residual_max_bps": {
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        "GLD": 0.0,
        "BIL": 0.015906232371243334
      }
    }
  ]
}