{
  "tests": [
    {
      "case": "actual_2019_missing_forecast",
      "synthetic": false,
      "own_rate_percent": null,
      "market_rate_percent": 1.66,
      "decision": "insufficient_evidence",
      "target": {
        "SPY": 0.3,
        "IEF": 0.2,
        "GLD": 0.25,
        "BIL": 0.25
      },
      "passed": true
    },
    {
      "case": "synthetic_already_in_consensus",
      "synthetic": true,
      "own_rate_percent": 1.66,
      "market_rate_percent": 1.66,
      "decision": "no_relative_edge",
      "target": {
        "SPY": 0.3,
        "IEF": 0.2,
        "GLD": 0.25,
        "BIL": 0.25
      },
      "passed": true
    },
    {
      "case": "synthetic_expect_cuts_but_fewer_than_market",
      "synthetic": true,
      "own_rate_percent": 2.0,
      "market_rate_percent": 1.66,
      "decision": "trim_IEF",
      "target": {
        "SPY": 0.3,
        "IEF": 0.15000000000000002,
        "GLD": 0.25,
        "BIL": 0.3
      },
      "passed": true
    },
    {
      "case": "synthetic_more_cuts_not_transmitted",
      "synthetic": true,
      "own_rate_percent": 1.25,
      "market_rate_percent": 1.66,
      "decision": "no_relative_edge",
      "target": {
        "SPY": 0.3,
        "IEF": 0.2,
        "GLD": 0.25,
        "BIL": 0.25
      },
      "passed": true
    },
    {
      "case": "synthetic_more_cuts_and_edge",
      "synthetic": true,
      "own_rate_percent": 1.25,
      "market_rate_percent": 1.66,
      "decision": "add_IEF",
      "target": {
        "SPY": 0.3,
        "IEF": 0.25,
        "GLD": 0.25,
        "BIL": 0.2
      },
      "passed": true
    },
    {
      "case": "synthetic_risk_violation",
      "synthetic": true,
      "own_rate_percent": 1.25,
      "market_rate_percent": 1.66,
      "decision": "risk_budget_fail",
      "target": {
        "SPY": 0.3,
        "IEF": 0.2,
        "GLD": 0.25,
        "BIL": 0.25
      },
      "passed": true
    }
  ],
  "cost_examples": [
    {
      "each_side_bps": 5,
      "isolated_5pp_switch_round_trip_portfolio_cost_bps": 1.0,
      "relative_sleeve_return_hurdle_bps_before_other_effects": 20
    },
    {
      "each_side_bps": 10,
      "isolated_5pp_switch_round_trip_portfolio_cost_bps": 2.0,
      "relative_sleeve_return_hurdle_bps_before_other_effects": 40
    },
    {
      "each_side_bps": 25,
      "isolated_5pp_switch_round_trip_portfolio_cost_bps": 5.0,
      "relative_sleeve_return_hurdle_bps_before_other_effects": 100
    }
  ],
  "scope": "One real missing-data gate and five synthetic branch tests; not a return backtest, forecasts, or real transactions"
}