{
  "version": "policy-sleeve-retrospective-v1",
  "status": "pre-return research design; annual source reviews to be frozen separately",
  "base_weights": {"SPY": 0.30, "IEF": 0.20, "GLD": 0.25},
  "variable_weight": 0.25,
  "candidate_pool": ["XLI", "XLU", "XLK", "XLE", "VNQ", "DBC", "BIL"],
  "mapping": {
    "manufacturing_infrastructure": "XLI",
    "grid_utilities": "XLU",
    "technology_digital": "XLK",
    "traditional_energy": "XLE",
    "housing_real_estate": "VNQ",
    "inflation_resources": "DBC",
    "unclear_defensive": "BIL"
  },
  "selection": "Read prior calendar year's archived, dated reports. Up to two distinct supported themes, equal sleeve weights. No strong mapping => BIL. A low confidence specific theme is not promoted solely to fill the sleeve. No tuning after returns are calculated.",
  "cutoff": "December 31 of source year; fiscal-year labels are not publication dates. Newly released reports after cutoff are excluded.",
  "execution": "First trading close of January next year; targets earn returns from the following trading day. First research entry at 2008-01-02 close.",
  "rebalance": "First trading close every month; annual theme selection is separate from monthly weight restoration.",
  "start": "2008-01-02",
  "end": "2026-11-04",
  "capital_usd": 100000,
  "leverage": 1,
  "cost_main": "IBKR Pro low volume commission reference verified 2026-11-06 plus research allowances (3 bps spread/slippage, venue/clearing/CAT and sell regulatory budget). No personal tax or FX; fund internal expenses already included.",
  "controls": ["variable_BIL", "variable_equal_pool", "variable_XLU", "variable_SPY", "momentum_original_pool", "momentum_same_pool", "permanent_monthly"],
  "momentum": "Prior-close 252-trading-session total return; select maximum strictly positive eligible return, otherwise BIL. Original pool XLU/VNQ/IGF/DBC; same-pool excludes BIL as a risky candidate. Require full lookback, no backfilled IGF pre-inception data. Monthly selection and weight restoration.",
  "sensitivities": ["one_way_5bps", "one_way_20bps", "theme_change_delayed_to_February", "primary_theme_only", "2007_low_confidence_original_XLK_candidate_instead_of_BIL"],
  "report_checks": ["annual_returns", "CAGR", "daily_max_drawdown_and_recovery", "volatility", "rolling_10_year_returns", "same-start_subperiods", "fees_turnover", "equity_exposure", "source_and_signal_cutoffs"],
  "limitations": ["Retrospective interpretation by a model with historical knowledge; not a clean out-of-sample test", "Downloaded archives do not prove exact first-publication bytes", "Source set is incomplete and selection-biased", "Policy direction does not establish undervaluation or corporate profits", "Industry ETFs may overlap SPY and do not create independent asset classes", "2026 outcome is partial; 2026 policy reading for 2027 is watchlist only", "No fee optimization or parameter search to reach an 8% target"]
}