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</style><header><div class="eyebrow">长期投资系统 / 证据资料库 / 2026.11.05</div><h1>先确认来源，<br>再讨论长期机会。</h1><p class="lead">政府政策、财政与能源情景、机构长期假设的原件及年度覆盖。用于研究组合中 25% 可调整资产的候选方向；本库尚不足以认证完整的历史报告驱动回测。</p><div class="stats"><div><b>576</b><span>来源与尝试记录</span></div><div><b>497</b><span>成功留存记录（含摘要）</span></div><div><b>455</b><span>去重后已获文件内容</span></div><div><b>210</b><span>年度覆盖记录</span></div></div><nav><a href="#issues">重点问题</a><a href="#coverage">逐年覆盖</a><a href="#themes">原文与解释</a><a href="#catalog">检索资料</a><a href="#controls">核查与下一步</a></nav></header><main>
<section id="issues"><h2>会影响研究结论的缺口</h2><p>原始文件、公开摘要、配套数据和失败记录分别保留。下载数量不是独立来源数量，同一机构的不同官网、仓库和转载不构成多源交叉证明。</p><div class="tablewrap"><table class="issues"><thead><tr><th>优先级</th><th>问题与影响</th><th>处理建议</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>高</td><td>历史版本当前可下载，不证明首发当天已有这些字节。</td><td>研究先冻结原件和发布日期证据；修订版本另建记录。首发可见性未核实的材料，禁止倒填到原发布日期作为历史信号。</td></tr>
<tr><td>高</td><td>JPM 2027 美国高收益债预期复合回报：<a href="#source-jpm_release">发布稿</a>写6.7%，<a href="#source-jpm_2027_full">报告印刷页68</a>与<a href="#source-jpm_matrix_usd">美元矩阵 USD!C20</a>为6.6%。</td><td>保留三项证据及版本；暂不自动选值进入策略。先核实定义、修订和勘误；同机构多种载体也不应盲目投票取多数。</td></tr><tr><td>高</td><td>CBO 原始下载受限；部分可从官方代码仓库取得数据，不能用数据表代替未取得的叙述报告。</td><td>按年度保留原文和数据两个覆盖维度；仓库固定提交与版本。2026 预算展望修订和长期展望的数据包形态见逐年覆盖及来源记录。</td></tr>
<tr><td>高</td><td>机构历史报告断链、认证或权限限制，公共摘要可能仅覆盖少数观点。</td><td>保留访问失败与可用官方摘要；下一步核实官方历史镜像或合法授权资料。未取得的原文不填充为“已覆盖”。</td></tr>
<tr><td>中</td><td>版本年、发布日期和预测资料截止日不同；旧网页也可能误链新文件。</td><td>逐份核对标题、文件内年份、日期与表头。ERP 2017／2026、JPM 2027、EIA 2015 的具体差异见原文札记与来源详情。</td></tr>
<tr><td>中</td><td>政策提案、法律、拨款与执行数据的证据强度不同；预测和公司盈利也不是同一层证据。</td><td>政策按阶段登记；主题需追加订单、现金流、资本开支和估值核验，再交策略模块定义可测试规则。</td></tr>
</tbody></table></div><p class="muted">本表是研究处理建议。每项具体事实以如下年度覆盖、札记及附原件的目录为依据。</p></section>
<section id="coverage"><h2>2010 年至今：逐年覆盖与缺口</h2><p>点击展开每个系列。年度是版本年，不一定是出版年。Fed 为补充选读；没有把它列为完整季度历史。EIA 停刊、CBO 数据替代报告、下载失败和本轮未找到分别记录。</p><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>资料系列</th><th>本轮主要成果</th><th>仍未解决</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>CEA / ERP</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2010">2010</a>—<a href="#source-erp_2026">2026</a> 共17年完整报告，最新61份表格</td><td>历史首发身份与完整修订链；早年独立数据表</td></tr>
<tr><td>OMB / 政策</td><td><a href="#source-budget_fy2027">FY2027预算</a>、分析卷、年中修订、57份历史表；选定正式法律与授予公告</td><td>历史预算系列未系统收集；资金实际支付与当前修法影响未全面核实</td></tr>
<tr><td>EIA / AEO</td><td>2010—2023、2025—2026共16年主报告；<a href="#source-eia_2026_aeo_narrative">2026完整叙述与11情景表</a></td><td>2024停刊；2010配套表为2009年12月早期版；首发可见性未认证</td></tr>
<tr><td>CBO</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2026">预算与经济展望</a>、<a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2026">长期展望</a>的逐年页面证据及官方机器数据备份</td><td>主站PDF/XLSX下载403；官方代码仓库数据不是原始PDF或首发文件</td></tr>
<tr><td>机构展望</td><td><a href="#source-jpm_2027_full">JPM 2027完整报告</a>与美元矩阵；大摩公开展望与主题摘要</td><td>历史全文仍有较大缺口；MS Research与MSIM分开登记，摘要不可替代客户全文</td></tr>
</tbody></table></div><p class="muted">官方备用入口：ERP由白宫与GovInfo交叉核对；政策公告由NIST官方存档补充；CBO数据由官方GitHub固定提交保留。镜像提高可获得性，不增加独立观点的数量。原件只在当前本机留存，本轮没有完成异机灾备。</p><details class="coverage-group"><summary>CEA / 白宫 · ERP <small>17 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2010">erp_2010</a> <a href="#source-erp_2010_mods">erp_2010_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2011">erp_2011</a> <a href="#source-erp_2011_mods">erp_2011_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2012">erp_2012</a> <a href="#source-erp_2012_mods">erp_2012_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2013">erp_2013</a> <a href="#source-erp_2013_mods">erp_2013_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2014">erp_2014</a> <a href="#source-erp_2014_mods">erp_2014_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2015">erp_2015</a> <a href="#source-erp_2015_mods">erp_2015_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2016">erp_2016</a> <a href="#source-erp_2016_mods">erp_2016_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2017">erp_2017</a> <a href="#source-erp_2017_mods">erp_2017_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2018">erp_2018</a> <a href="#source-erp_2018_mods">erp_2018_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2019">erp_2019</a> <a href="#source-erp_2019_mods">erp_2019_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2020">erp_2020</a> <a href="#source-erp_2020_mods">erp_2020_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2021">erp_2021</a> <a href="#source-erp_2021_mods">erp_2021_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2022">erp_2022</a> <a href="#source-erp_2022_mods">erp_2022_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2023">erp_2023</a> <a href="#source-erp_2023_mods">erp_2023_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2024">erp_2024</a> <a href="#source-erp_2024_mods">erp_2024_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；确切公开发布日期尚未独立核实。；历史独立表格未收集；统计表保存在报告 PDF 中。</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2025">erp_2025</a> <a href="#source-erp_2025_mods">erp_2025_mods</a></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>尚未建立完整首发及修订链。；61 Appendix/statistical spreadsheets retained; chapter model inputs or chart source microdata are not fully inventoried.</td><td><a href="#source-erp_2026">erp_2026</a> <a href="#source-erp_2026_mods">erp_2026_mods</a> <a href="#source-erp_2026_whitehouse">erp_2026_whitehouse</a> <a href="#source-erp_2026_package">erp_2026_package</a></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details><details class="coverage-group"><summary>OMB / 美国政府 · Federal Budget <small>18 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>本轮未系统收集</td><td>本轮优先取得最新 FY2027 预算；历史预算系列尚未系统收集，不代表官方没有出版。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>完整报告／正式文件</td><td>Historical fiscal-year2010-2026 budget PDFs not collected in this batch.；Current linked revisions cannot establish original day-of-release bytes.</td><td><a href="#source-budget_fy2027_landing">budget_fy2027_landing</a> <a href="#source-budget_fy2027">budget_fy2027</a> <a href="#source-budget_fy2027_analytical">budget_fy2027_analytical</a> <a href="#source-budget_fy2027_tables_landing">budget_fy2027_tables_landing</a><small>另有 4 项，见目录或覆盖记录</small></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details><details class="coverage-group"><summary>OMB / 美国政府 · Industrial policy <small>17 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>仅选定文件</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td><a href="#source-policy_chips_2022">policy_chips_2022</a> <a href="#source-policy_ira_2022">policy_ira_2022</a></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>仅选定文件</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td><a href="#source-policy_tsmc_final_2024">policy_tsmc_final_2024</a> <a href="#source-policy_tsmc_final_2024_nist">policy_tsmc_final_2024_nist</a></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>仅选定文件</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td><a href="#source-policy_obbba_2025">policy_obbba_2025</a></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>未系统收集</td><td>仅收选定政策；后续修法、拨款、义务、支出与项目交付必须分阶段核实。</td><td></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details><details class="coverage-group"><summary>EIA · Annual Energy Outlook <small>17 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>full_report_and_early_release_data</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。；已收参考表内部Release Date为December 2009，是早期参考情景；尚未确证2010年4月最终报告的原配套表。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2010_report_0">eia_2010_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2010_old_ref_4">eia_2010_old_ref_4</a> <a href="#source-eia_2010_old_ref_5">eia_2010_old_ref_5</a> <a href="#source-eia_2010_old_ref_6">eia_2010_old_ref_6</a><small>另有 60 项，见目录或覆盖记录</small></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2011_report_0">eia_2011_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2011_alltables">eia_2011_alltables</a></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2012_report_0">eia_2012_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2012_alltables">eia_2012_alltables</a></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2013_report_0">eia_2013_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2013_alltables">eia_2013_alltables</a></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2014_report_0">eia_2014_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2014_reference_data_0">eia_2014_reference_data_0</a></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2015_report_0">eia_2015_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2015_archive_aeotab_1">eia_2015_archive_aeotab_1</a> <a href="#source-eia_2015_archive_aeotab_8">eia_2015_archive_aeotab_8</a> <a href="#source-eia_2015_archive_aeotab_9">eia_2015_archive_aeotab_9</a><small>另有 1 项，见目录或覆盖记录</small></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2016_report_0">eia_2016_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2016_reference_data_0">eia_2016_reference_data_0</a></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2017_report_0">eia_2017_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2017_reference_data_0">eia_2017_reference_data_0</a></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2018_report_0">eia_2018_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2018_reference_data_0">eia_2018_reference_data_0</a></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2019_report_0">eia_2019_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2019_reference_data_0">eia_2019_reference_data_0</a></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2020_report_0">eia_2020_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2020_reference_data_0">eia_2020_reference_data_0</a></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2021_report_0">eia_2021_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2021_reference_data_0">eia_2021_reference_data_0</a></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2022_report_0">eia_2022_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2022_reference_data_0">eia_2022_reference_data_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2022_reference_data_1">eia_2022_reference_data_1</a></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2023_report_0">eia_2023_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2023_reference_data_0">eia_2023_reference_data_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2023_reference_data_1">eia_2023_reference_data_1</a></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>已确认本年停刊</td><td>2024 explicitly not published; official 2023-07-26 announcement</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2024_nonpublication">eia_2024_nonpublication</a></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2025_report_0">eia_2025_report_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2025_reference_data_0">eia_2025_reference_data_0</a> <a href="#source-eia_2025_reference_data_1">eia_2025_reference_data_1</a></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>主报告及数据已获</td><td>已取得该版主报告与参考情景数据；未认证首发原字节，需核对更正记录与各文件实际可得时点。</td><td><a href="#source-eia_2026_aeo_narrative">eia_2026_aeo_narrative</a> <a href="#source-eia_2026_excel_yearbyyear_xlsx">eia_2026_excel_yearbyyear_xlsx</a> <a href="#source-eia_2026_excel_aeotab8_xlsx">eia_2026_excel_aeotab8_xlsx</a> <a href="#source-eia_2026_excel_aeotab9_xlsx">eia_2026_excel_aeotab9_xlsx</a><small>另有 14 项，见目录或覆盖记录</small></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details><details class="coverage-group"><summary>CBO · Budget and Economic Outlook <small>17 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2010">cbo_web_budget_2010</a></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2011">cbo_web_budget_2011</a></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2012">cbo_web_budget_2012</a></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2013">cbo_web_budget_2013</a></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2014">cbo_web_budget_2014</a></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2015">cbo_web_budget_2015</a></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2016">cbo_web_budget_2016</a></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2017">cbo_web_budget_2017</a></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2018">cbo_web_budget_2018</a></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2019">cbo_web_budget_2019</a></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2020">cbo_web_budget_2020</a></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2021">cbo_web_budget_2021</a></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2022">cbo_web_budget_2022</a></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2023">cbo_web_budget_2023</a></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>网页摘要与标准化数据已获</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_data_budget_ten_year_budget_annual_fy_2024-06_csv">cbo_data_budget_ten_year_budget_annual_fy_2024-06_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_calendar_2024-02_csv">cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_calendar_2024-02_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_calendar_2024-06_csv">cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_calendar_2024-06_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_fiscal_2024-02_csv">cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_fiscal_2024-02_csv</a><small>另有 4 项，见目录或覆盖记录</small></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>网页摘要与标准化数据已获</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_data_budget_ten_year_budget_annual_fy_2025-01_csv">cbo_data_budget_ten_year_budget_annual_fy_2025-01_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_calendar_2025-01_csv">cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_calendar_2025-01_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_calendar_2025-09_csv">cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_calendar_2025-09_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_fiscal_2025-01_csv">cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_fiscal_2025-01_csv</a><small>另有 4 项，见目录或覆盖记录</small></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>网页摘要与标准化数据已获</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_data_budget_ten_year_budget_annual_fy_2026-02_csv">cbo_data_budget_ten_year_budget_annual_fy_2026-02_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_calendar_2026-02_csv">cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_calendar_2026-02_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_fiscal_2026-02_csv">cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_fiscal_2026-02_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_quarterly_2026-02_csv">cbo_data_economic_economic_projections_quarterly_2026-02_csv</a><small>另有 1 项，见目录或覆盖记录</small></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details><details class="coverage-group"><summary>CBO · Long-Term Budget Outlook <small>17 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2010">cbo_web_long_term_2010</a></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2011">cbo_web_long_term_2011</a></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2012">cbo_web_long_term_2012</a></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2013">cbo_web_long_term_2013</a></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2014">cbo_web_long_term_2014</a></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2015">cbo_web_long_term_2015</a></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2016">cbo_web_long_term_2016</a></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2017">cbo_web_long_term_2017</a></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2018">cbo_web_long_term_2018</a></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2019">cbo_web_long_term_2019</a></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2020">cbo_web_long_term_2020</a></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2021">cbo_web_long_term_2021</a></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2022">cbo_web_long_term_2022</a></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>网页摘要已获；原文下载受限</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2023">cbo_web_long_term_2023</a></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>网页摘要与标准化数据已获</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_levels_2024-03_csv">cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_levels_2024-03_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_lfp_rates_2024-03_csv">cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_lfp_rates_2024-03_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_rates_2024-03_csv">cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_rates_2024-03_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2024">cbo_web_long_term_2024</a></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>网页摘要与标准化数据已获</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_data_budget_long_term_budget_annual_fy_2025-03_csv">cbo_data_budget_long_term_budget_annual_fy_2025-03_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_levels_2025-03_csv">cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_levels_2025-03_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_lfp_rates_2025-03_csv">cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_lfp_rates_2025-03_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_rates_2025-03_csv">cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_rates_2025-03_csv</a><small>另有 1 项，见目录或覆盖记录</small></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>本年以数据替代叙述报告</td><td>本机下载 CBO 原件返回 HTTP 403；网页提取文字不等于原报告文件。；官方 GitHub 标准化历史数据为当前加工版本；未认证与原始发布文件相同。；2026 长期展望明确以数据工作簿替代叙述报告。</td><td><a href="#source-cbo_data_budget_long_term_budget_annual_fy_2026-02_csv">cbo_data_budget_long_term_budget_annual_fy_2026-02_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_levels_2026-02_csv">cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_levels_2026-02_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_lfp_rates_2026-02_csv">cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_lfp_rates_2026-02_csv</a> <a href="#source-cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_rates_2026-02_csv">cbo_data_economic_long_term_economic_rates_2026-02_csv</a><small>另有 1 项，见目录或覆盖记录</small></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details><details class="coverage-group"><summary>J.P. Morgan AM · JPM LTCMA <small>18 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。 官方西班牙/意大利archive真实PDF链接均404。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-2011_LTCMA">2011_LTCMA</a> <a href="#source-jpm_it_LTCMA-2011">jpm_it_LTCMA-2011</a> <a href="#source-jpm_cdn_2011">jpm_cdn_2011</a></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。 官方西班牙/意大利archive真实PDF链接均404。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-2012_LTCMA">2012_LTCMA</a> <a href="#source-jpm_it_LTCMA-2012">jpm_it_LTCMA-2012</a></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。 官方西班牙/意大利archive真实PDF链接均404。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-2013_LTCMA">2013_LTCMA</a> <a href="#source-jpm_it_LTCMA-2013">jpm_it_LTCMA-2013</a></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。 官方西班牙/意大利archive真实PDF链接均404。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-2014_LTCMA">2014_LTCMA</a> <a href="#source-jpm_it_LTCMA-2014">jpm_it_LTCMA-2014</a></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。 官方西班牙/意大利archive真实PDF链接均404。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-2015_LTCMA">2015_LTCMA</a> <a href="#source-jpm_it_LTCMA-2015">jpm_it_LTCMA-2015</a></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。 官方西班牙/意大利archive真实PDF链接均404。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-2016_LTCMA">2016_LTCMA</a> <a href="#source-jpm_it_LTCMA-2016">jpm_it_LTCMA-2016</a></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。 官方西班牙/意大利archive真实PDF链接均404。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-2017_LTCMA">2017_LTCMA</a> <a href="#source-jpm_it_LTCMA-2017">jpm_it_LTCMA-2017</a></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。 官方西班牙/意大利archive真实PDF链接均404。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-2018_LTCMA">2018_LTCMA</a> <a href="#source-jpm_it_LTCMA-2018">jpm_it_LTCMA-2018</a></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。 官方西班牙/意大利archive真实PDF链接均404。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-2019_LTCMA">2019_LTCMA</a> <a href="#source-jpm_it_LTCMA-2019">jpm_it_LTCMA-2019</a></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。 官方西班牙/意大利archive真实PDF链接均404。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-2020_LTCMA_Mark-to-Market_Update">2020_LTCMA_Mark-to-Market_Update</a> <a href="#source-2020_LTCMA">2020_LTCMA</a> <a href="#source-jpm_it_LTCMA-2020">jpm_it_LTCMA-2020</a> <a href="#source-jpm_it_ltcma-executive-summary-2020">jpm_it_ltcma-executive-summary-2020</a></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。 只有2021年2月调查回顾，报告首发只确认2020年11月。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-jpm_survey_2021">jpm_survey_2021</a></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。 仅官方脚注提及2021-11-08的2022版，不能算年度摘要。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-jpm_2022_citation">jpm_2022_citation</a></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-jpm_2023_page">jpm_2023_page</a> <a href="#source-jpm_2023_link">jpm_2023_link</a></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-jpm_release_2024">jpm_release_2024</a></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-jpm_release_2025">jpm_release_2025</a></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-jpm_release_2026">jpm_release_2026</a> <a href="#source-jpm_2026_original_report">jpm_2026_original_report</a></td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>完整原件已获</td><td>取得本年指定文件；不宣称该系列全年/全币种完整。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-jpm_latest">jpm_latest</a> <a href="#source-jpm_release">jpm_release</a> <a href="#source-jpm_2027_full">jpm_2027_full</a></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details><details class="coverage-group"><summary>J.P. Morgan AM · JPM LTCMA Matrices <small>18 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>完整原件已获</td><td>取得本年指定文件；不宣称该系列全年/全币种完整。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-jpm_matrix_usd">jpm_matrix_usd</a> <a href="#source-jpm_matrix_usd_data">jpm_matrix_usd_data</a> <a href="#source-jpm_matrix_usd_csv">jpm_matrix_usd_csv</a></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details><details class="coverage-group"><summary>J.P. Morgan AM · JPM LTCMA Methodology <small>18 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。独立方法论手册不按年度回填；当前认证跳转及旧链接404证据见catalog无edition条目。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details><details class="coverage-group"><summary>Morgan Stanley Research · Morgan Stanley Research Outlook and Themes <small>18 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-ms_midyear_2017">ms_midyear_2017</a></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-ms_midyear_2018">ms_midyear_2018</a></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。本年取得食物价格、供应链专题摘要，年度宏观展望仍缺。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-ms_2022_food">ms_2022_food</a> <a href="#source-ms_2022_supplychain">ms_2022_supplychain</a></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-ms_annual_2023">ms_annual_2023</a> <a href="#source-ms_ai_productivity_2023">ms_ai_productivity_2023</a></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-ms_annual_2024">ms_annual_2024</a> <a href="#source-ms_nuclear_2024">ms_nuclear_2024</a> <a href="#source-ms_2024_macro_full">ms_2024_macro_full</a></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-ms_research_2025_macro_full">ms_research_2025_macro_full</a> <a href="#source-ms_annual_2025">ms_annual_2025</a> <a href="#source-ms_2025_macro_retry">ms_2025_macro_retry</a></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>仅公开摘要</td><td>仅公开摘要/发布稿或专题补充资料；本年完整报告仍缺。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-ms_themes">ms_themes</a> <a href="#source-ms_midyear_economy_2026">ms_midyear_economy_2026</a> <a href="#source-ms_midyear_strategy_2026">ms_midyear_strategy_2026</a> <a href="#source-ms_annual_economy_2026">ms_annual_economy_2026</a><small>另有 2 项，见目录或覆盖记录</small></td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>未来版本未列入历史缺口</td><td>截至2026-11-05，本轮未确认该2027版已出版；此格不是已出版历史报告的缺失证明。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details><details class="coverage-group"><summary>Morgan Stanley IM · MSIM Outlook and Themes <small>18 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>访问受限</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。已定位官方原PDF/页面，当前403；未登录或代作专业资格声明。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-msim_outlook_2016">msim_outlook_2016</a></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>访问受限</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。已定位官方原PDF/页面，当前403；未登录或代作专业资格声明。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-msim_outlook_2017">msim_outlook_2017</a></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>访问受限</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。已定位官方原PDF/页面，当前403；未登录或代作专业资格声明。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-msim_outlook_2019">msim_outlook_2019</a></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>访问受限</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。已定位官方原PDF/页面，当前403；未登录或代作专业资格声明。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-msim_outlook_2020">msim_outlook_2020</a></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>访问受限</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。已定位官方原PDF/页面，当前403；未登录或代作专业资格声明。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-msim_outlook_2021">msim_outlook_2021</a></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>访问受限</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。已定位官方原PDF/页面，当前403；未登录或代作专业资格声明。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-msim_outlook_2022">msim_outlook_2022</a></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>本轮未找到可获原件</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>访问受限</td><td>本年原件未实收；not_found只表示本轮未取得，不表示未出版。已定位官方原PDF/页面，当前403；未登录或代作专业资格声明。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td><a href="#source-msim_bigpicture_2026">msim_bigpicture_2026</a> <a href="#source-msim_equity_2026">msim_equity_2026</a> <a href="#source-msim_beat_2026">msim_beat_2026</a> <a href="#source-msim_bigpicture_2026_normal_browser">msim_bigpicture_2026_normal_browser</a><small>另有 1 项，见目录或覆盖记录</small></td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>未来版本未列入历史缺口</td><td>截至2026-11-05，本轮未确认该2027版已出版；此格不是已出版历史报告的缺失证明。；2026-11-05取得的当前快照，不是当年存证。首次可得日期、版本修订及数据截至日期须分别核验；摘要不补全客户报告；未知日期不得作为历史实时信号。</td><td></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details><details class="coverage-group"><summary>Federal Reserve · SEP (supplementary) <small>17 条年度记录</small></summary><div class="tablewrap"><table><thead><tr><th>版本年</th><th>取得状况</th><th>缺口与使用限制</th><th>依据</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2011</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2014</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2015</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2016</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2017</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2018</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2019</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>选读范围外</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>已收选定期次</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td><a href="#source-fed-sep-20251210">fed-sep-20251210</a></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>已收选定期次</td><td>仅收最新 SEP 与一期历史对照，不是完整季度历史，也未覆盖 2010—2024。</td><td><a href="#source-fed-sep-20260916">fed-sep-20260916</a> <a href="#source-fed-sep-accessible-20260916">fed-sep-accessible-20260916</a></td></tr></tbody></table></div></details></section>
<section id="themes"><h2>原文说了什么，哪些仍需验证</h2><p>仅摘录与长期配置有关的有限主题。核读位置列在每条札记中；文件通过完整性检查不代表正文已经逐页人工核读。研究解释和推翻条件不得冒充机构原话。</p><article class="note"><h3>CEA 2026：产业与增长政策叙事</h3><dl><dt>政策阶段</dt><dd>混合已立法、行政行动、倡议及模型预测；须逐项核对。</dd><dt>页面核对</dt><dd>PDF298表14-4已渲染核对脚注与页码。</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>报告讨论税制、能源、AI、供应链及国防工业。AI测算多为GDP水平效应，分歧显著；国防需求受年度拨款影响。宏观预测至2036，使用截至2025-11-04资料。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>行政部门政策方向可形成待验证的产业研究问题；不是独立预测共识，也不能推出证券回报。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>正式报告及分章分析提供政策逻辑；法案与最终授予公告可分别检验立法和执行阶段。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>AI采用存在时滞，且表5-1混合地域、期限与情景，不可直接排序成回报预测。；国防章节自述采购和拨款不确定性；这限制由预算倡议推断未来订单的做法。；预测资料截止早于报告发布约五个月，不能直接称为当前最新经济预测。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>官方修改、撤销相应政策或预算最终未获立法；据此降级相关政策假设。；后续生产率、实际产出与政策模型预测持续偏离时，重新评估其增长传导假设。</dd><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>第1章印刷23起；第4章印刷79/PDF84；第5章印刷99–101/PDF104–106、表5-1；第7章印刷155/PDF160；第8章印刷181/PDF186；第14章印刷293–294/PDF298–299、表14-4</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-erp_2026_whitehouse">查看来源 erp_2026_whitehouse</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>联邦预算 FY2027 与年中修订</h3><dl><dt>政策阶段</dt><dd>Budget proposal and revised estimates；非全额已拨款证明。</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>FY2027预算提出国防优先和非国防调整。9月4日年中函件更新收支估计；S-1列强制支出至2031，S-2列2027余额后续支出至2036。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>财政年、首次发布日、修订日应分别记录；预算请求、授权额度、义务和现金支出不可互换。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>OMB完整主报告、分析卷及历史表原件；年中修订保留为独立版本。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>总统预算请求不等于国会已拨款；年中估计也不是已实现结果。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>最终拨款与总统请求方向或规模明显不同。；后续财政实际数或修订显著改变相关计划支出。</dd><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>主报告印刷1–2/PDF7–8；主报告Summary Tables印刷73起；MSR日期函PDF5；MSR印刷1–3/PDF9–11</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-budget_fy2027">查看来源 budget_fy2027</a> · <a href="#source-budget_fy2027_analytical">查看来源 budget_fy2027_analytical</a> · <a href="#source-budget_fy2027_tables">查看来源 budget_fy2027_tables</a> · <a href="#source-budget_fy2027_mid_session">查看来源 budget_fy2027_mid_session</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>CHIPS法案及TSMC最终授予</h3><dl><dt>政策阶段</dt><dd>enacted: True；appropriation: 法案相应条款；不泛化到所有科学授权。；final_award: True；cash_disbursement_verified: False</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>CHIPS已立法。商务部公告TSMC最终直接资助上限66亿美元，按里程碑支付；另有拟议贷款，不能与直接资助或现金到账混计。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>最终授予是比倡议更强的执行证据，但仍需支付记录和工厂交付资料确认实际效果。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>正式公法与完成尽调后的最终授予公告。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>历史公告不能证明2026年条款未变；公告未证明全部资金支付。；Commerce直连403；NIST同源官方存档已保存，页脚标2025-10-06更新，不能当作2024原始网页字节。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>最终协议变更、取消、项目里程碑落后或资金停止支付。</dd><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>P.L.117-167 Division A §102 starts PDF8 (136 Stat.1372); cover enactment date PDF1；Commerce 2024-11-15公告正文与末段</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-policy_chips_2022">查看来源 policy_chips_2022</a> · <a href="#source-policy_tsmc_final_2024">查看来源 policy_tsmc_final_2024</a> · <a href="#source-policy_tsmc_final_2024_nist">查看来源 policy_tsmc_final_2024_nist</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>2025税制/产业政策与2022 IRA旧法版本</h3><dl><dt>政策阶段</dt><dd>Enacted originals; implementation and cash-flow evidence incomplete.</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>保留两部已通过法律的原始文本，分别反映不同时间政策。2022年原法不能直接视为2026年有效政策全集。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>需按具体条款核对后续修法、生效日和资格；立法日不是每条措施的实施日。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>官方公法文本可确认立法存在。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>本批未建立逐条合并法、拨付和执行追踪；不认证所有优惠当前仍适用。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>后续修法、期限届满、实施规则或资格变化使所用条款失效。</dd><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>P.L.119-21 PDF1 enactment date; original text preserved, provisions not exhaustively reviewed；P.L.117-169 PDF1-2 enactment date; original text preserved, provisions not exhaustively reviewed</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-policy_obbba_2025">查看来源 policy_obbba_2025</a> · <a href="#source-policy_ira_2022">查看来源 policy_ira_2022</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>电力与数据中心需求</h3><dl><dt>机构</dt><dd>EIA</dd><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>PDF第17页（印刷页14），Data centers bolster electricity demand growth；第19—20页（印刷页16—17）发电结构及容量。</dd><dt>单位</dt><dd>percent annual growth; generating capacity GW; electricity generation billion kWh in source tables</dd><dt>情景前提</dt><dd>11 cases; Counterfactual Baseline is not a preferred/probability-weighted forecast</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>11种情景下，至2050年电力需求年均增长0.9%—1.6%，数据中心是重要驱动。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>AI推断：先跟踪真实负荷、并网容量及资本支出兑现，再研究证券映射。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>可将电力需求、发电与输配电投资列为候选观察方向。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>行业需求增长不能证明上市公司利润率、估值或ETF收益；容量成本与建设时序会改变结果。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>多年真实需求持续低于情景区间；并网延迟或成本超支令新增需求不能转成现金流</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-eia_2026_aeo_narrative">查看来源 eia_2026_aeo_narrative</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>天然气与运输能力</h3><dl><dt>机构</dt><dd>EIA</dd><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>PDF第27页（印刷页24）天然气产量；第28—29页（印刷页25—26）国内需求与LNG出口。</dd><dt>单位</dt><dd>Bcf/d</dd><dt>情景前提</dt><dd>Most cases; high/low resource cases differ</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>多数情景中天然气产量从2025年107 Bcf/d升至2050年133—151 Bcf/d；运输基础设施扩建是条件。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>AI推断：政策公告与项目已投产分开核查，以现金流及实物吞吐验证。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>天然气供应、管道及LNG投产量可作为可观测研究指标。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>审批、工程成本、气价及全球需求不同会改变经济性。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>承诺的管道或出口能力未实际投运；国内或海外用气需求持续低于假设</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-eia_2026_aeo_narrative">查看来源 eia_2026_aeo_narrative</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>财政与利率约束</h3><dl><dt>机构</dt><dd>CBO</dd><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>官方61882页面 Summary: Budget Outlook、Economic Outlook，以及 Corrections and Updates；原始PDF本机下载受阻。</dd><dt>单位</dt><dd>percent GDP, fiscal years</dd><dt>情景前提</dt><dd>Current-law baseline; trade policy 2025-11-20, economic laws/developments 2025-12-03, budget legislation cutoff 2026-01-14</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>现行法律基线下，公众持有联邦债务从2026年约101% GDP升至2036年120%；利息支出约束财政空间。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>AI推断：用作情景约束，不能单独形成交易信号。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>财政与利率情景应纳入政策主题研究的约束。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>基线不是未来政策、债券价格或证券总回报预测。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>立法或关税司法变化使原政策假设失效；增长与利率长期偏离原路径</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-cbo_web_budget_2026">查看来源 cbo_web_budget_2026</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>长期财政基线的政策边界</h3><dl><dt>机构</dt><dd>CBO</dd><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>官方62044页面 Summary（2026-02-25）。</dd><dt>单位</dt><dd>Source-specific budget ratios and economic rates; read included schemas.</dd><dt>情景前提</dt><dd>Current-law extension to 2056</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>2026长期展望以数据包代替叙述报告；未计入2026-02-20最高法院关税裁决的影响。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>AI推断：用于当下分析前应另核对裁决及新政策影响。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>保留至2056年长期财政与经济情景参照。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>不是截至收集日全部政策变化的综合预测。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>后来预测纳入新的法律或司法结果并取代当前假设</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-cbo_web_long_term_2026">查看来源 cbo_web_long_term_2026</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>核能主题的相反证据</h3><dl><dt>机构</dt><dd>EIA</dd><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>PDF第31页，印刷页28，Why do not our projections show more nuclear capacity?</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>多数情景的核电容量基本持平；低油气供应情景中较高气价才明显支持新增核电。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>AI推断：对先进核能主题须补充成本、融资、许可及交付证据。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>提醒将先进核能政策与现实成本竞争分开。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>不能把所有电力需求增长自动解释为核电企业收益增长；模型也不擅长刻画实验中技术。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>商业化成本或可交付时间显著变化；可验证新增订单和投产结果与模型前提不符</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-eia_2026_aeo_narrative">查看来源 eia_2026_aeo_narrative</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>JPM 长期资本市场假设</h3><dl><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>PDF印刷页4、6–16、26–32、40–47、59–67；USD矩阵68–69</dd><dt>观察指标</dt><dd>企业AI资本支出及现金流；非科技部门劳动生产率；盈利修订及利润率；实际收益率与股债相关性</dd><dt>成立条件</dt><dd>仅战略长期假设，非短期择时；基币、费用、杠杆、资产定义须匹配。</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>2027版强调经济民族主义、科技采用与资本流向重组；10–15年全球60/40预期7.0%，同时认为通胀波动与股债相关性上升。AI投资支持生产率，但采用收益、估值与融资风险并存。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>将主题拆成资本支出、生产率、利润率、估值和资金成本的可检验链条；产业需求增长不自动等于ETF超额回报。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>报告页26–32讨论AI投资到生产率；页59–67讨论主题暴露和组合韧性。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>高估值、集中风险、通胀冲击和采用不均可能削弱回报；不以私募预期代替上市ETF。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>若后续可观测AI采用未改善生产率或现金流，资本开支收缩而估值仍高，主题盈利链条需复核。此为AI提出的检验条件，非原文精确交易阈值。</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-jpm_2027_full">查看来源 jpm_2027_full</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>大摩公开长期主题</h3><dl><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>网页 Four Key Investment Themes for 2026，2026-01-27</dd><dt>观察指标</dt><dd>数据中心电力负荷；电网资本开支；企业AI采用率；供应链迁移及贸易数据</dd><dt>成立条件</dt><dd>仅摘要证据；不同主题可能共享同一股票风险。</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>公开摘要的四类主题为科技扩散、能源未来、多极世界与社会变化。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>以主题形成待验证研究问题；公开摘要不提供完整模型或上市ETF收益预测。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>官网主题摘要</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>客户完整报告未获；主题强弱、时间和可投资标的不能从宣传摘要补写。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>实际需求、订单及盈利未跟随主题发展，或增量利润被资本开支和竞争侵蚀。</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-ms_themes">查看来源 ms_themes</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>大摩年中展望的成立条件</h3><dl><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>网页 Key Takeaways / baseline forecast，2026-05-15</dd><dt>观察指标</dt><dd>油价；石油及天然气供应中断；企业投资；消费分层</dd><dt>成立条件</dt><dd>基线包括年末油价回落；有上/下行情景。</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>中期摘要基线认为2026全球增长放缓至3.2%，2027回升3.4%，以能源冲击缓和为关键条件。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>能源供给是否恢复是可跟踪情景分岔，不能把条件预测当确定路径。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>官网2026中期经济展望</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>延长的供给中断可造成短缺、供应链问题和衰退。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>能源价格与供应中断持续偏离假设且传导至盈利或消费，将迫使调整基线。</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-ms_midyear_economy_2026">查看来源 ms_midyear_economy_2026</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>jpm_high_yield_conflict</h3><dl><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>新闻稿 Fixed Income段；PDF第68页 U.S. High Yield Bonds；XLSX USD!B20:F20</dd><dt>观察指标</dt><dd>官方后续修订；矩阵文件哈希；复合与算术回报定义</dd><dt>成立条件</dt><dd>任何用于比较或建模的数字都应指定版本、单位和来源。</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>新闻稿称美国高收益债长期回报6.7%；同期PDF矩阵和下载XLSX复合回报为6.6%，上一年对照均为6.1%。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>这是同版官方材料间的不一致，不能用四舍五入假定消除；结构化提取保留矩阵6.6并标记差异，不擅自改写原件。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>PDF与XLSX一致为6.6%；XLSX算术回报约6.9395并非6.7。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>发布稿正文确为6.7；尚无官方勘误解释。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>若官方更正版统一数值或解释定义差异，应追加修订记录，不能覆盖本次快照。</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-jpm_release">查看来源 jpm_release</a> · <a href="#source-jpm_2027_full">查看来源 jpm_2027_full</a> · <a href="#source-jpm_matrix_usd">查看来源 jpm_matrix_usd</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>jpm_matrix_usage</h3><dl><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>USD工作表A2、B5:B8、C:F及相关矩阵G列起；原PDF第68–69页</dd><dt>观察指标</dt><dd>预期回报定义；相关矩阵变化；基币与汇率假设</dd><dt>成立条件</dt><dd>用于长期情景及研究比较，不能直接作为短期择时或当年已知数据。</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>2027版美元矩阵提供复合回报、算术回报、年化波动率、2026复合回报对照及资产间相关性，覆盖60个数值资产行（含通胀）。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>复合与算术回报用途不同；跨资产建模前需匹配币种、费用、杠杆、流动性及资产定义。当前工作簿中的2026比较列不能恢复2026原始波动率和相关矩阵。</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>原XLSX由openpyxl实际打开并逐列识别，PDF第68页已渲染复核。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>10–15年长期假设不保证实现；私募回报不等于上市ETF回报。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>数据定义不匹配、原件修订或实际结构发生显著变化时需重新评估，而非继续沿用数值。</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-jpm_matrix_usd">查看来源 jpm_matrix_usd</a></p></article><article class="note"><h3>利率与通胀约束</h3><dl><dt>原文定位</dt><dd>PDF pp.1–4; Table 1; Figure 2</dd><dt>原文观点</dt><dd>参与者对增长、失业、通胀和合适政策利率给出各自条件预测；中位数不是集体政策承诺，长期值以没有后续冲击等条件为前提。</dd><dt>观察指标</dt><dd>实际GDP（四季度同比）；PCE/核心PCE（四季度同比）；第四季度失业率；年底政策利率中点及分布</dd><dt>支持证据</dt><dd>可以观察预测分布和与前次预测的变化，作为主题估值与融资环境的条件参照。</dd><dt>反对证据／限制</dt><dd>SEP自身展示分歧和不确定性；政策路径不承诺实施，模型也不是ETF回报预测。</dd><dt>研究解释（非原文结论）</dt><dd>长久期资产及融资敏感主题应单独检验利率上行情景，而不是把一个点阵中位数视作确定折现率。</dd><dt>推翻条件（研究建议）</dt><dd>实际通胀持续高于该预测路径；后续SEP利率分布上移；主题现金流增速不能抵消融资成本</dd></dl><p class="sources"><a href="#source-fed-sep-20260916">查看来源 fed-sep-20260916</a></p></article></section>
<section id="catalog"><h2>检索来源与原件</h2><p>可按机构、版本、标题、主题关键词和备注检索目录；不提供全 PDF 正文搜索。打开“本地原件”需保留资料库文件夹结构。</p><div class="filters"><input id="q" aria-label="搜索资料" placeholder="例如：2027、CBO、AI、修订"><select id="institution" aria-label="按机构筛选"><option value="">全部机构</option></select><select id="status" aria-label="按取得状况筛选"><option value="">全部取得状况</option></select></div><p id="result-count" class="muted"></p><div id="results"></div><div class="pager"><button id="prev">上一页</button><span id="page"></span><button id="next">下一页</button></div></section>
<section id="controls"><h2>已经建立的核查与后续顺序</h2><ol><li>获取后记录官方地址、实际出版证据、预测区间、取得时间和使用限制，保存网页快照及原文件。</li><li>核对文件签名、表格结构与哈希，逐年登记空缺；同哈希内容归为同一份文件，机构同源关系独立标记。</li><li>保留版本差异和异常原因。内容错版、日期不明或失效链接继续追查；取得充分证据前不进入历史信号。</li><li>优先补 CBO 叙述原文与机构历史完整报告；再验证政策执行、不同报告的相反证据和主题可投资性。</li><li>后续可在年度报告、季度 SEP、政策落地事件时更新；本轮没有建立定时任务，也没有变动交易策略。</li></ol><div class="callout">文件与引用检查：0 项错误、240 项提醒。提醒主要用于暴露日期未知和范围限制；检查通过也不等于所有正文已逐页核读。</div><p><a href="catalog.json">结构化来源目录</a> · <a href="coverage.json">逐年覆盖记录</a> · <a href="evidence_notes.json">主题证据札记</a> · <a href="validation.json">文件核查结果</a></p><p class="muted">使用界限：官方公开文件不等于全部内容可自由再发布；商业机构报告按原网站条款用于私人研究。资料库支持证据查找，不代表投资回报承诺、ETF 白名单或可直接下单的策略。</p></section></main><footer>本地保存 · 离线可用 · 不连接行情主库 · 不改写旧研究。正式引用请同时注明机构、报告版本、实际发布日期和页码／章节。</footer>
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This text snapshot proves publication/metadata only, not possession of original full report."], "validation": {"text_characters": 15462}, "initial_release_original_available": false, "artifact_role": "supporting_material", "historical_use_status": "Not admitted to historical backtest: first-release identity and exact availability require additional evidence.", "archive_group": "cbo_eia", "page_count": null, "relative_path": "cbo_eia/web_evidence/long_term_2016.txt"}, {"id": "cbo_web_long_term_2017", "institution": "CBO", "series": "Long-Term Budget Outlook", "title": "The 2017 Long-Term Budget Outlook", "edition": 2017, "publication_date": "2017-03-30", "publication_date_precision": "day", "publication_date_evidence": "Official publication date shown in web-extracted snapshot", "acquired_at": "2026-11-05T15:25:38.973740+00:00", "forecast_horizon": null, "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52480", "landing_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52480", "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\web_evidence\\long_term_2017.txt", "sha256": "97cf47d91fc9f377ed7987c114e777ad3c71a7152b7bd8a5ccdeaa9d23e1a899", "file_type": "txt", "access_status": "public_summary", "use_restrictions": "Official public text; extracted browser snapshot is not original HTML or report bytes.", "revision_relation": "Current official page text; may describe corrections to prior release.", "source_family": "CBO", "notes": ["Raw file access from host returns HTTP 403. This text snapshot proves publication/metadata only, not possession of original full report."], "validation": {"text_characters": 11361}, "initial_release_original_available": false, "artifact_role": "supporting_material", "historical_use_status": "Not admitted to historical backtest: first-release identity and exact availability require additional evidence.", "archive_group": "cbo_eia", "page_count": null, "relative_path": "cbo_eia/web_evidence/long_term_2017.txt"}, {"id": "cbo_web_long_term_2018", "institution": "CBO", "series": "Long-Term Budget Outlook", "title": "The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook", "edition": 2018, "publication_date": "2018-06-26", "publication_date_precision": "day", "publication_date_evidence": "Official publication date shown in web-extracted snapshot", "acquired_at": "2026-11-05T15:25:38.973740+00:00", "forecast_horizon": null, "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53919", "landing_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53919", "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\web_evidence\\long_term_2018.txt", "sha256": "1912e1bfe2b45143b237afd1b48fb5a3bb2e9eb036a1022899645c3833cd48b9", "file_type": "txt", "access_status": "public_summary", "use_restrictions": "Official public text; extracted browser snapshot is not original HTML or report bytes.", "revision_relation": "Current official page text; may describe corrections to prior release.", "source_family": "CBO", "notes": ["Raw file access from host returns HTTP 403. This text snapshot proves publication/metadata only, not possession of original full report."], "validation": {"text_characters": 13310}, "initial_release_original_available": false, "artifact_role": "supporting_material", "historical_use_status": "Not admitted to historical backtest: first-release identity and exact availability require additional evidence.", "archive_group": "cbo_eia", "page_count": null, "relative_path": "cbo_eia/web_evidence/long_term_2018.txt"}, {"id": "cbo_web_long_term_2019", "institution": "CBO", "series": "Long-Term Budget Outlook", "title": "The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook", "edition": 2019, "publication_date": "2019-06-25", "publication_date_precision": "day", "publication_date_evidence": "Official publication date shown in web-extracted snapshot", "acquired_at": "2026-11-05T15:25:38.973740+00:00", "forecast_horizon": null, "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55331", "landing_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55331", "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\web_evidence\\long_term_2019.txt", "sha256": "6f4eeefa539e8cd56fd312b51ceafd5e8b105169e872443e9a7d73da83bfb53f", "file_type": "txt", "access_status": "public_summary", "use_restrictions": "Official public text; extracted browser snapshot is not original HTML or report bytes.", "revision_relation": "Current official page text; may describe corrections to prior release.", "source_family": "CBO", "notes": ["Raw file access from host returns HTTP 403. This text snapshot proves publication/metadata only, not possession of original full report."], "validation": {"text_characters": 6835}, "initial_release_original_available": false, "artifact_role": "supporting_material", "historical_use_status": "Not admitted to historical backtest: first-release identity and exact availability require additional evidence.", "archive_group": "cbo_eia", "page_count": null, "relative_path": "cbo_eia/web_evidence/long_term_2019.txt"}, {"id": "cbo_web_long_term_2020", "institution": "CBO", "series": "Long-Term Budget Outlook", "title": "The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook", "edition": 2020, "publication_date": "2020-09-21", "publication_date_precision": "day", "publication_date_evidence": "Official publication date shown in web-extracted snapshot", "acquired_at": "2026-11-05T15:25:38.973740+00:00", "forecast_horizon": null, "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56516", "landing_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56516", "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\web_evidence\\long_term_2020.txt", "sha256": "ce091b81c262198995a1b92e21bf8c39ed05b8a68578bbf6b245f87a6681a6c5", "file_type": "txt", "access_status": "public_summary", "use_restrictions": "Official public text; extracted browser snapshot is not original HTML or report bytes.", "revision_relation": "Current official page text; may describe corrections to prior release.", "source_family": "CBO", "notes": ["Raw file access from host returns HTTP 403. This text snapshot proves publication/metadata only, not possession of original full report."], "validation": {"text_characters": 6686}, "initial_release_original_available": false, "artifact_role": "supporting_material", "historical_use_status": "Not admitted to historical backtest: first-release identity and exact availability require additional evidence.", "archive_group": "cbo_eia", "page_count": null, "relative_path": "cbo_eia/web_evidence/long_term_2020.txt"}, {"id": "cbo_web_long_term_2021", "institution": "CBO", "series": "Long-Term Budget Outlook", "title": "The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook", "edition": 2021, "publication_date": "2021-03-04", "publication_date_precision": "day", "publication_date_evidence": "Official publication date shown in web-extracted snapshot", "acquired_at": "2026-11-05T15:25:38.973740+00:00", "forecast_horizon": null, "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56977", "landing_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56977", "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\web_evidence\\long_term_2021.txt", "sha256": "98b614d087b4b1aa9c3b1b4de6c9098d9731f3099e78bc13f04286c2ec62f800", "file_type": "txt", "access_status": "public_summary", "use_restrictions": "Official public text; extracted browser snapshot is not original HTML or report bytes.", "revision_relation": "Current official page text; may describe corrections to prior release.", "source_family": "CBO", "notes": ["Raw file access from host returns HTTP 403. This text snapshot proves publication/metadata only, not possession of original full report."], "validation": {"text_characters": 7303}, "initial_release_original_available": false, "artifact_role": "supporting_material", "historical_use_status": "Not admitted to historical backtest: first-release identity and exact availability require additional evidence.", "archive_group": "cbo_eia", "page_count": null, "relative_path": "cbo_eia/web_evidence/long_term_2021.txt"}, {"id": "cbo_web_long_term_2022", "institution": "CBO", "series": "Long-Term Budget Outlook", "title": "The 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook", "edition": 2022, "publication_date": "2022-07-27", "publication_date_precision": "day", "publication_date_evidence": "Official publication date shown in web-extracted snapshot", "acquired_at": "2026-11-05T15:25:38.973740+00:00", "forecast_horizon": null, "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57971", "landing_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57971", "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\web_evidence\\long_term_2022.txt", "sha256": "1d316ba45476e779768437ddf802b5642c16297fd761258539da192345213346", "file_type": "txt", "access_status": "public_summary", "use_restrictions": "Official public text; extracted browser snapshot is not original HTML or report bytes.", "revision_relation": "Current official page text; may describe corrections to prior release.", "source_family": "CBO", "notes": ["Raw file access from host returns HTTP 403. This text snapshot proves publication/metadata only, not possession of original full report."], "validation": {"text_characters": 6349}, "initial_release_original_available": false, "artifact_role": "supporting_material", "historical_use_status": "Not admitted to historical backtest: first-release identity and exact availability require additional evidence.", "archive_group": "cbo_eia", "page_count": null, "relative_path": "cbo_eia/web_evidence/long_term_2022.txt"}, {"id": "cbo_web_long_term_2023", "institution": "CBO", "series": "Long-Term Budget Outlook", "title": "The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook", "edition": 2023, "publication_date": "2023-06-28", "publication_date_precision": "day", "publication_date_evidence": "Official publication date shown in web-extracted snapshot", "acquired_at": "2026-11-05T15:25:38.973740+00:00", "forecast_horizon": null, "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59014", "landing_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59014", "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\web_evidence\\long_term_2023.txt", "sha256": "e52cead568363bd3ba84359a1a7f200b50aec124a17e3757a3715bc6655631ae", "file_type": "txt", "access_status": "public_summary", "use_restrictions": "Official public text; extracted browser snapshot is not original HTML or report bytes.", "revision_relation": "Current official page text; may describe corrections to prior release.", "source_family": "CBO", "notes": ["Raw file access from host returns HTTP 403. This text snapshot proves publication/metadata only, not possession of original full report."], "validation": {"text_characters": 6273}, "initial_release_original_available": false, "artifact_role": "supporting_material", "historical_use_status": "Not admitted to historical backtest: first-release identity and exact availability require additional evidence.", "archive_group": "cbo_eia", "page_count": null, "relative_path": "cbo_eia/web_evidence/long_term_2023.txt"}, {"id": "cbo_web_long_term_2024", "institution": "CBO", "series": "Long-Term Budget Outlook", "title": "The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054", "edition": 2024, "publication_date": "2024-03-20", "publication_date_precision": "day", "publication_date_evidence": "Official publication date shown in web-extracted snapshot", "acquired_at": "2026-11-05T15:25:38.973740+00:00", "forecast_horizon": null, "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59711", "landing_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59711", "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\web_evidence\\long_term_2024.txt", "sha256": "84796ceb73421f7f52584f72087f4200371656bade7064b700a80f776a2a4a2d", "file_type": "txt", "access_status": "public_summary", "use_restrictions": "Official public text; extracted browser snapshot is not original HTML or report bytes.", "revision_relation": "Current official page text; may describe corrections to prior release.", "source_family": "CBO", "notes": ["Raw file access from host returns HTTP 403. 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