{ "created_at": "2026-11-07T20:42:10.780293+08:00", "type": "current sector research triage; not buy recommendations or historical blind test", "universe": [ "XLK", "XLI", "XLE", "XLV", "XLP", "XLU" ], "benchmark": "SPY", "source_file": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\ChatGPT\\长期投资系统\\outputs\\持续推进-2026-11-07\\3号接口探索\\七ETF发行方当前字段.json", "source_sha256": "10cfaf4f5b316b1878b6744f930e361ab24df81aa02a521f2cfacb5f08fd0ccf", "cards": [ { "ticker": "XLK", "name": "科技", "bucket": "优先深入研究", "why": "FY1 PE接近SPY，预期增长更高，值得先查预测是否兑现；不是低估结论。", "proof": "半导体39.69%、软件27.61%；前三家公司45.00%。是大型科技公司集合，不等于全部AI受益者。", "reject": "增长预期落空或资本支出吞噬现金；再加XLK会重复扩大SPY已有的大公司敞口。", "trigger": "主要持仓两期收入/经营利润和现金覆盖，拆清会计收益、资本开支及固定FY预期修订。", "kill": "增长或现金回报持续达不到原假设，且估值未补偿；单凭近期强势不能保留倾斜。", "action": "等待盈利与估值证据；本轮不新增仓位", "variant": "尚无已验证的市场误价；要检验高增长预期与当前PE组合是否可信。", "facts": { "fy1_pe": 19.9, "pb": 9.68, "estimated_3_5_year_eps_growth_percent": 29.52, "holdings_count": 76.0, "gross_expense_ratio_percent": 0.08 }, 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Negative and positive outliers are included in the calculation." }, "Weighted Average Market Cap": { "value_text": "$1,501,455.00 M", "as_of": "2026-11-05", "locator": "Fund Characteristics / Weighted Average Market Cap", "definition": "" }, "Benchmark": { "value_text": "S&P 500 Index", "as_of": "2026-11-07", "locator": "Fund Information / Benchmark", "definition": "" }, "Inception Date": { "value_text": "Jan 22 1993", "as_of": "2026-11-07", "locator": "Fund Information / Inception Date", "definition": "" }, "Options Available": { "value_text": "Yes", "as_of": "2026-11-07", "locator": "Fund Information / Options Available", "definition": "" }, "Gross Expense Ratio": { "value_text": "0.0945%", "as_of": "2026-11-07", "locator": "Fund Information / Gross Expense Ratio", "definition": "Gross Expense Ratio The fund's total annual operating expense ratio. It is gross of any fee waivers or expense reimbursements. It can be found in the fund's most recent prospectus." }, "Base Currency": { "value_text": "USD", "as_of": "2026-11-07", "locator": "Fund Information / Base Currency", "definition": "" }, "Trustee": { "value_text": "State Street Global Advisors Trust Company", "as_of": "2026-11-07", "locator": "Fund Information / Trustee", "definition": "" }, "Marketing Agent": { "value_text": "State Street Global Advisors Funds Distributors, LLC", "as_of": "2026-11-07", "locator": "Fund Information / Marketing Agent", "definition": "" }, "Sponsor": { "value_text": "PDR", "as_of": "2026-11-07", "locator": "Fund Information / Sponsor", "definition": "" }, "Administrator": { "value_text": "State Street Bank and Trust Company", "as_of": "2026-11-07", "locator": "Fund Information / Administrator", "definition": "" }, "Distributor": { "value_text": "ALPS Distributors, Inc.", "as_of": "2026-11-07", "locator": "Fund Information / Distributor", "definition": "" }, "Distribution Frequency": { "value_text": "Quarterly", "as_of": "2026-11-07", "locator": "Fund Information / Distribution Frequency", "definition": "" }, "30 Day SEC Yield": { "value_text": "1.00%", "as_of": "2026-11-05", "locator": "Yields / 30 Day SEC Yield", "definition": "30 Day SEC Yield (Also known as Standardized Yield) An annualized yield that is calculated by dividing the net investment income earned by the fund over the most recent 30-day period by the maximum offering price on the last day of the period." }, "30 Day SEC Yield (Unsubsidized)": { "value_text": "1.00%", "as_of": "2026-11-05", "locator": "Yields / 30 Day SEC Yield (Unsubsidized)", "definition": "30 Day SEC Yield (Unsubsidized) An annualized yield that is calculated by dividing the net investment income earned by the fund over the most recent 30-day period by the current maximum offering price that does not account for expense ratio waivers." }, "Fund Distribution Yield": { "value_text": "1.03%", "as_of": "2026-11-05", "locator": "Yields / Fund Distribution Yield", "definition": "Fund Distribution Yield The sum of the distributions within the past 365 days divided by Net Asset Value per share, expressed as a percentage." }, "Index Dividend Yield": { "value_text": "1.15%", "as_of": "2026-11-05", "locator": "Yields / Index Dividend Yield", "definition": "Index Dividend Yield The weighted average of the underlyings' indicated annual dividend divided by price, expressed as a percentage." } }, "holdings": { "as_of": "2026-11-05", "locator": "Fund Top Holdings", "top10": [ { "name": "APPLE INC", "shares_held": 178383069.0, "weight_percent": 7.92 }, { "name": "NVIDIA CORP", "shares_held": 295794206.0, "weight_percent": 6.93 }, { "name": "MICROSOFT CORP", "shares_held": 90760962.0, "weight_percent": 6.27 }, { "name": "AMAZON.COM INC", "shares_held": 119971231.0, "weight_percent": 4.03 }, { "name": "ALPHABET INC CL A", "shares_held": 71720148.0, "weight_percent": 2.61 }, { "name": "BROADCOM INC", "shares_held": 58148166.0, "weight_percent": 2.19 }, { "name": "ALPHABET INC CL C", "shares_held": 58093824.0, "weight_percent": 2.11 }, { "name": "META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A", "shares_held": 26951166.0, "weight_percent": 2.1 }, { "name": "ELI LILLY + CO", "shares_held": 9779275.0, "weight_percent": 1.72 }, { "name": "BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CL B", "shares_held": 22761807.0, "weight_percent": 1.68 } ], "top10_weight_percent": 37.56 }, "allocation": { "as_of": "2026-11-05", "label": "Fund Sector Breakdown", "rows": [ { "name": "Information Technology", "weight": "35.54%" }, { "name": "Financials", "weight": "12.77%" }, { "name": "Health Care", "weight": "10.56%" }, { "name": "Consumer Discretionary", "weight": "9.54%" }, { "name": "Communication Services", "weight": "8.82%" }, { "name": "Industrials", "weight": "8.14%" }, { "name": "Consumer Staples", "weight": "5.25%" }, { "name": "Energy", "weight": "3.55%" }, { "name": "Utilities", "weight": "2.15%" }, { "name": "Real Estate", "weight": "1.90%" }, { "name": "Materials", "weight": "1.79%" } ] }, "benchmark_definition": "The S&P 500® Index is designed to measure the performance of the large-cap segment of the US equity market. It is float-adjusted market capitalization weighted.", "missing_fields": { "realized_earnings_growth": null, "consensus_revision_history": null, "free_cash_flow_quality": null, "profitability_quality": null, "historical_point_in_time_panel": null }, "scope": "Current issuer observation only. Forecast EPS growth is an estimate; no ranking, trade or historical backtest admission." }, "lookthrough": { "AI8_base_top3_share": 0.06336, "AI8_with5pct_XLK_top3_share": 0.08586, "AI8_base_technology_sector_share": 0.10661999999999999, "AI8_with5pct_XLK_technology_sector_share": 0.15661999999999998, "as_of": "2026-11-05", "scope": "目标权重穿透，只核对列明三家公司与科技板块；不是实际账户或完整交叉持仓审计" }, "AI8_target_unchanged": { "SPY": 0.3, "IEF": 0.2, "GLD": 0.25, "BIL": 0.25 }, "C6_unchanged": true, "historical_AI_performance": null, "company_partial_evidence": [ { "id": "MSFT_FY27Q1", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2027-q1/press-release-webcast", "publication_date": "2026-10-28", "period_end": "2026-09-30", "sector": "XLK", "holding_weight_percent": 13.37, "facts": { "revenue_yoy_pct": 19, "operating_income_yoy_pct": 21, "gaap_diluted_eps_yoy_pct": 32, "adjusted_diluted_eps_yoy_pct": 18, "operating_cash_flow_million": [ 58000, 45057 ], "cash_property_equipment_additions_million": [ 39367, 19394 ] }, "locators": [ "release opening results", "GAAP/non-GAAP reconciliation", "Cash Flows Statements: Net cash from operations; Additions to property and equipment" ], "caution": "调整EPS剔除OpenAI投资影响，不等同剔除所有非经常项；现金流小计是自定义CFO减现金PP&E，未含所有融资租赁等资本承诺。单季不外推行业。", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T12:24:32.387386+00:00", "raw_content_valid": false, "error": "HTTP Error 403: Forbidden", "evidence_scope": "官方网页相关披露已通过web核读；本地获取结果另列。局部持仓的一期结果，不达到板块覆盖或两期兑现门槛。", "historical_admission": false, "calculation": { "CFO_less_cash_PPE_million": [ 18633, 25663 ], "yoy_change": -0.2739352375014612, "not_company_reported_FCF": true } }, { "id": "XOM_2026Q3", "url": "https://investor.exxonmobil.com/company-information/press-releases/detail/1213/exxonmobil-announces-third-quarter-2026-results", "publication_date": "2026-10-30", "period_end": "2026-09-30", "sector": "XLE", "holding_weight_percent": 24.39, "facts": { "operating_cash_flow_million": [ 25650, 23555 ], "company_defined_fcf_million": [ 19109, 17236 ], "previous_comparator": "2026Q2 not prior-year quarter", "shareholder_distributions_billion": 9.4 }, "locators": [ "opening quarterly results", "Cash Flow From Operations excluding Working Capital table", "Free Cash Flow reconciliation and non-GAAP definition" ], "caution": "公司定义FCF包括额外投资、资产出售等，与微软CFO减PP&E不可直接横向比较。经营现金增长与周期油价/炼化利润相关，不能单季证明可持续。", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T12:24:32.596953+00:00", "source_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\ChatGPT\\长期投资系统\\outputs\\持续推进-2026-11-07\\2号行业选择\\经营原件\\XOM_2026Q3.html", "sha256": "2a8768372a3bded7d04c19f00bb8944ca5aefc149bf8013ea8b3f95d4c2cc990", "raw_content_valid": true, "evidence_scope": "官方网页相关披露已通过web核读；本地获取结果另列。局部持仓的一期结果，不达到板块覆盖或两期兑现门槛。", "historical_admission": false } ], "simple_price_control_experiment": { "file": "价格对照实验结果.json", "not_AI_strategy": true, "window": "2025-01-02..2026-11-04", "annual_selections": 2, "not_out_of_sample": true } }